Thursday, January 29, 2009

Atlanta's economy - The Red Book

On driving home from a client, I recently heard that NPR was searching for stories about local economies--what the people thought. Here's what I've seen in Atlanta lately:

I run every week with about 30 marathoners for weekly training runs. For the last several years, all of the runners were working full time in various occupations. The latest count of unemployed in recent months is now up to three - one former marketing exec at a bank, one former chemist, and one former writer for the local paper. Then there's the one underemployed runner who left the corporate world and hasn't made any substantial entrepreneurial income.

By the latest statistics released by the labor department, Atlanta's unemployment now tops the nation running at 7.6%, which is four-tenths of a percent ahead of the nation. What's new about this recession, is that it isn't just the blue-collar workers who are getting laid off. Everyone in every industry is affected, regardless of title.

While several of my clients use to pay their employees bonuses at year end, no one in the group of 30 announced that they had received a bonus at Christmastime. So much for consumption spending in Atlanta's economy this year. If bonuses accounted for 20-30% of the discretionary spending, Atlanta's economy will be in for a rough ride. Forget about home improvements when there's no excess funding coming in from bonuses or any "wealth effect" feel good from people's 401Ks. Fortunately, no one in our group has mentioned dipping into their 401Ks yet.

Along with no bonus, late payments are another topic. Court reporters are finding that it takes the lawyers a lot longer to pay them for their services that before. Even though the lawyers aren't hurting for cash, it's the trickle down effect. If it takes the lawyers longer to get paid by their clients, they take longer to pay their vendors.

It's close to Spring time in Atlanta. No one has mentioned taking a vacation anywhere this year. Talk of future Marathons has come to be the next local marathon. Sorry airlines, hotels and restaurants. The trickle down will continue to hit your industry also. Funny--I didn't hear any bailouts for these industries.

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